Why do economists continue to give interest-rate forecasts, despite the fact that they’re generally awful at predicting interest rates? Probably because people ask them to. But if you’re thinking of investing in a bond fund now, it would help to have a forecast in mind – if only to give you an idea of the risks you’re incurring.
People ask economists to give interest rate forecast because so many things depend upon your assumption for rates, and that’s especially true for bonds. Bond prices fall when interest rates rise and they rise when interest rates fall.
Just how vulnerable is your fund to interest-rate changes? You can get a good idea by looking at the fund’s duration, which tells you how much a bond’s price will fall, given a rise in interest rates of one percentage point. Consider the Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund ETF (BND), the largest bond ETF, which is also a good proxy for, well, the total U.S. bond market.
The Vanguard ETF, for example, has a duration of 6.09 years, meaning a rise in rates of one percentage point would mean a principal loss of about 6.09%. That loss would be offset, somewhat, by the interest investors receive from the bonds. The ETF has a yield of 3.13%, according to Morningstar Direct. If you were to assume that rates will rise by a percentage point, your total return – price decline plus interest – would about a 3% loss.
Interest rates have been rising since July 2016, when the bellwether 10-year Treasury note hit an all-time low of 1.38%. It’s trading at 2.85% now. Since that date, Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund ETF has lost 1.75%, including reinvested interest. While interest payments have certainly offset most of the fund’s losses, it hasn’t been enough to eliminate them entirely. The past 12 months, the fund has lost 0.82%.
Here’s where the forecast comes in. If you were to assume that interest rates will rise a percentage point in the next year, you should brace yourself for roughly a 3% loss. That’s not a catastrophic loss – bond bear markets are like getting attacked by very mean ants – but you might consider a few other options.
One is a money market fund. Just as the 10-year T-note yield has been rising, so has the yield on money market funds. Vanguard Prime Money Market Fund Investor Shares (VMMXX) has a yield of 2.02% and – assuming the fund maintains its constant price of $1 per share – it has very little potential for a principal loss.
Another is a fund with a tolerable track record of managing interest-rate risk. (Typically, these funds are also deft with credit risk – buying bonds from shaky companies that are getting better). One is Dodge & Cox Income (DODIX). It has a duration of 4.2 years, a 3.02% yield, and an expense ratio of 0.43%. The past two years, the fund has averaged a 2.94% gain – not much, but better than the average fund.
Bear in mind if bonds are a part of a long-term plan, you shouldn’t dump your bond funds because you’ve got a feeling rates will rise. Over the long term, bonds have a great record in dampening the effects of stock downturns. But if you’re trying to figure out where to invest money now, a money fund or Dodge & Cox Income are two good places to start.