For nearly a year now, pundits have been describing the U.S. stock market as “the least dirty shirt in the closet,” “the least bad-looking market,” “squeakier than a bowl of mice.” Ok, they didn’t use the last one. But the general implication is stocks may be expensive, but hey — they’re not bonds and they sure aren’t cash.
You may have noticed, however, that cash looks increasingly attractive this week. While you’re earning an average 0.02% a year on your money market fund, that’s generally better than losing 1% to 2% a day on your stock fund.
Think of it this way: The average large-company blend stock fund is down 4.26% the past month. If you had 30% of your portfolio in cash, and 70% in your basic large-company stock fund, you’d be down 2.98%. While no loss is good, smaller losses are always better than larger ones.
More importantly, you would have an easily accessible buying reserve for stocks that seem ridiculously cheap. Finding values is more than buying whatever’s on the new low list. But if you can find a good stock that’s selling at a 20% discount or more, then this is a good time to think about buying.
Just recently I posted a list of companies in the Standard & Poor’s 500 stock index that are selling for 20% or more below their 52-week highs. That list has only grown since then. As of yesterday, 141 stocks, or 28% of the S&P 500, were below their 52-week highs. Among the more interesting entries to the 20% discount club:
- Asset managers. Franklin Resources is down nearly 30% from its 52-week high, and it has now been joined by Legg Mason and Genworth.
- Luxury goods. Coach is now nearly 60% below its all-time high, and Fossil is 56.5% below its all-time high. Michael Kors is nearly half its 52-week high.
- Railroads. Union Pacific, CSX, and Kansas City Southern are all at least 20% below their 52-week highs.
The two biggest areas that are getting clobbered are energy and technology stocks. The problems in energy are obvious: Oil is down more than 50% from its recent highs.
The problems in tech are not quite as clear, although the weakness in the Chinese market seems to be the easiest answer. But some tech stocks seem tempting at these levels: Intel sells for just 11.3 times expected earnings, and pays a 3.4% dividend, to boot. Applied Materials sells for 12.3 times expected earnings and yields 2.5%. And Sandisk sells for 12 times forward earnings and yields 2.3%. If you have the cash — and the tolerance for tech stocks — these might good places to nibble.